Burnley's home record under severe threat from Aston Villa
Burnley have started the season in good form and start this game in tenth place but face a strong Aston Villa side that look good value to challenge strongly for a top four finish. Burnley are starting to leak goals and Villa are starting to score them - suggesting that Burnley's excellent home form is under threat.
Burnley are somewhat Jeckyll and Hyde; six games at home have yielded five wins - six games away from home have yielded five defeats. Which is why it is tempting to pick Burnley to win at home and dismiss them away from Turf Moor. As the season stretches out, though, I would expect this trend to blur - more points (and even the odd win) away from home, and conversely some more home setbacks. To expect Burnley to win 15 home games is unreasonable (only Manchester United achieved that last season) - so blindly suggesting that this will be a home win is unlikely. Burnley will attack and have not lost at home to Villa since 1936; but The Clarets will need to be concerned about a high scoring Villa attack that thrives on the counter. Burnley have conceded 15 goals in the last six games - that does not suggest that a clean sheet is likely here.
Last season Villa won 10 away games and but for tiredness and some desperately disappointing late goals it could have been enough for a Champions' League slot. This season Villa has quickly slotted back into the groove after a few setbacks in the opening few weeks, and the early exit from Europe could benefit a squad that looks a touch stronger than last season. After scoring 5 against Bolton last time out, the Villans will expect to score against a leaky Burnley defence.
Burnley vs Aston Villa; Kick Off 3:00pm 21 Nov 2009
Prediction Panel
Our panel contains both Squarefootball writers and readers, the writers are marked: (sqf).
Dave Blackburn : 1 - 2
Chris Cox : TBC
Graham Enwright : 1 - 3
Sue Gardener : TBC
Chris Goodwin : 2 - 1
Paul Grech (sqf) : TBC
Colin Illingworth (sqf) : 2 - 1
Hugh Larkin (sqf) : TBC
Peter Lee : TBC
Don McMahon : 1 - 3
Antony Melvin (sqf) : 1 - 2
Paul O'Meara (sqf) : 2 - 1
Dave Nash : 1 - 2
Stephen Orford (sqf) : TBC
Tony Ratton : 2 - 2
Peter Rendle : 0 - 2
Dan Taylor : 1 - 0
Andy Wakeman : 1 - 2
Isaac Williams : TBC
Mark Williams : TBC
Panel Verdict
The panel is split with most panelists expecting both teams to score and Villa to win with the odd goal in three.
Home: 4; Draw: 1; Away: 7; TBC: 8.
* Do we have it right, or do you know better? Please don't bother with derisory comments on the predictions after the match - unless you also pulled us up before it!
