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Sunday, 22 November 2009

Spurs should end the year in third place, above Arsenal and Liverpool


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As I pointed out on Twitter and, obviously, in the diary yesterday, Spurs were the big winners on Saturday. Outside the current top two, only Sunderland in eighth won - and as they beat Arsenal this was hardly a bad result for Spurs. Added to this Liverpool's draw with Man City and Villa drawing at Burnley meant that although Spurs slipped behind Villa on goal difference the Wigan game gave Tottenham a chance to open up a gap back to fifth.

Overnight fourth placed Aston Villa were only two points clear of eighth placed Sunderland - by hammering Wigan 9-1, Tottenham leave those other four clubs three or more points behind.

Only Man City and Arsenal have a game in hand on Spurs now and the most critical gap is probably to Liverpool who Spurs have now opened a five point lead on. Tottenham will not play a league game against any of the 'big four' teams again in 2009, there are three games against teams looking to finish in the top six - Everton, Aston Villa and Man City - plus four teams that seem likely to finish in the bottom half of the table - Wolves, Blackburn, Fulham and West Ham.

Tottenham's 7 remaining 2009 Premier League fixtures
Aston Villa v Tottenham
Everton v Tottenham
Tottenham v Wolverhampton
Tottenham v Man City
Blackburn v Tottenham
Fulham v Tottenham
Tottenham v West Ham

So the Tottenham's fixture list looks tricky - but not worryingly so. Arsenal, who Spurs are now on terms with in terms of points (and the goal difference is no longer as big an issue) face a much more difficult stretch. Arsenal will play Chelsea and Liverpool in the next three games, with Aston Villa and Burnley away the other tricky looking games. Arsenal looked much less vibrant in attack against Sunderland without van Persie, Bendtner and Clichy - all three of which look unlikely to be available much before the end of 2009 - and that could cost them again in the next few weeks.

Arsenal's 7 remaining 2009 Premier League fixtures
Arsenal v Chelsea
Arsenal v Stoke
Liverpool v Arsenal
Burnley v Arsenal
Arsenal v Hull
Arsenal v Aston Villa
Portsmouth v Arsenal

Over the next seven games Spurs play just two teams in the top half of the division - whereas Arsenal play five top half teams; Spurs play no-one currently higher than fifth - Arsenal play the runaway league leaders, Chelsea, and must travel to Anfield to face a motivated Liverpool side, who should have Torres and Gerrard available by then.

Even before the 9-1 win against Wigan, Spurs looked capable of challenging the elite; and certain players were not too shy to avoid suggesting it. Now Spurs have a sound opportunity to outmuscle Arsenal, in terms of points, over the next six weeks and end in the year in third place. None of this dicates that the season will end with Spurs similarly placed - no-one can underestimate the rare number of unique and ingenious methods that Spurs adopt to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory - but the next seven games offers hope.

Hope and the chance to end the year able to consider a Champions' League finish as a decent chance - and then the transfer window opens and Spurs can probably outspend both Liverpool and Arsenal if they need to. On second thoughts it would be much more like Tottenham to now lose seven straight games and end the year considering Harry Redknapp's position!

*Can Spurs finish 2009 in third place, will they implode without warning to allow Arsenal and Liverpool to reform the standard top four places or will Villa, Man City or even Sunderland burst into the elite? Let us know.

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Antony Melvin

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