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Friday, 06 November 2009

The Liverpool revival starts on Monday


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Everything runs in cycles and Liverpool have recently had the equivalent of a solar eclipse in the third week of December - black patches in an otherwise grey sky; but cycles, like winters and eclipses end. And Liverpool really should be seeing the light any day now.

Firstly since thrashing Hull 6-1 on 26 September Liverpool have played six away games out of eight, fragmented by an international break. Admittedly one win, one draw and six defeats is rotten form - but Liverpool have shown in patches in most of those games what a good team they are and dominated the games with Manchester United and Lyon to demonstrate what a great team they are *capable* of being. The fixtures were difficult ones, playing the likes of Chelsea and Man United interspersed with Champions' League games and then bagging Arsenal away in the League Cup was always going to be difficult - but conversely it means that the fixture list will now ease.

Coupled with a rough run of fixtures came a disastrous set of injury setbacks with Torres and Gerrard injured on international duty just days after that Hull match. At its peak the injury crisis then collided with a flu virus running through the team - if the kit had been washed in some irritant that caused the remaining fit players to break out in a rash it would hardly have been a surprise.

But starting at Birmingham on Monday the injury crisis will start to ease and the fixture list will look much more benign. By the time the international break is over, Rafa Benitez may have a fully fit squad to choose from including his £20m summer signing, Alberto Aquilani, for the first time (I know he has played a few minutes from the bench, thanks). A bit of rest and a bit of time to reflect will do Liverpool a power of good.

Taking Liverpool up to half-way (19 games) will be five home games including only two tricky opponents from the top half of the table (Arsenal and Man City). The three away games include the derby match (where home advantage is of little import), and two relegation candidates (Blackburn and Portsmouth). With the League Cup campaign over there are the two remaining Champions' League fixtures - and with so many ifs and buts there, it can actually be less fraught than if Liverpool would definitely proceed with two wins. The group games can therefore be approached with some freedom.

Assuming four wins and a draw (Arsenal) at home, plus two wins and a draw (Everton) away, and suddenly Liverpool is up to 38 points from 19 games which would not be too far off the title pace and comfortably in the top four. The Champions' League is going to have to look after itself - but if the American owners aren't going to release transfer funds in January anyway, missing out on a few million from the knock-out rounds may not affect the team at all. Qualification for the knock-out rounds would be a morale boosting achievement - failure would free up the fixture list to enable Liverpool to more easily nail down a top four finish.

The wheel turns and Liverpool should be moving forward again; the revival starts on Monday.

Fixtures Up To Boxing Day

League Games

Liverpool v Birmingham
Liverpool v Man City
Everton v Liverpool
Blackburn v Liverpool
Liverpool v Arsenal
Liverpool v Wigan
Portsmouth v Liverpool
Liverpool v Wolverhampton

Uefa Champions League

Debrecen v Liverpool
Liverpool v Fiorentina

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Antony Melvin

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