Burnley: Clarets still have a golden chance of beating drop
Burnley missed out on a glorious opportunity to climb out of the bottom three at the weekend following their surprise home defeat against basement boys Portsmouth. Some calamitous defending from the Countdown ace Clarke Carlisle cost the Clarets dear but Burnley fans always knew life in the Premier League was going to be tough. However, I’m sure if they were offered the chance to be just one point from safety with 11 games left they would have snapped it up quicker than a fat girl can eat cake.
Nobody outside of Burnley gave the Clarets a hope in hell of beating the drop this season with most pundits predicting they would be the league’s whipping boys. And while that may be true of their away form, their sensational battling and creative performances at Turf Moor have put them in good stead for another campaign in the top flight come August.
Unfortunately the fortress has displayed a few cracks in recent months. Since beating Hull at home at the end of October the Clarets have managed just one home win – v West Ham United – and lost against Chelsea – no shame there –and Portsmouth. So with 11 games left to go, can Brian Laws lead his men to safety? Looking at the fixtures ahead I can see no reason why not.
They start their run-in at the Emirates this Saturday and in all honesty I think we can all accept that Arsenal will win this. The Gunners are back in the title race and I can’t see Burnley troubling them too much given their terrible away record. However, they follow up their capital adventure with a home double-header in which four points seems an absolute must.
First it’s Stoke City, who have only won twice away from home this season. The game comes just days after the Potters’ FA Cup clash with Chelsea at the Bridge and they will be without Ryan Shawcross following his awful challenge on Aaron Ramsey. Stoke have won three of their past seven meetings with Burnley in all competitions but a draw is the minimum requirement.
Then it’s fellow relegation battlers Wolverhampton Wanderers. Mick McCarthy’s men are currently just one point and five goals better off than Burnley but they have triumphed at Turf Moor on three of their past four visits. Fortunately for Laws, Wolves, like Stoke, have only won two games away from Molineux and managed just 11 goals in the process. Given Burnley’s inability to win away from home this is a crucial game if they are to stay up and one that I think they will win.
After that they travel to the DW Stadium and take on Wigan Athletic who are not out of the woods themselves. As it stands right now (March 2, 2010) the Lactics are just two points clear of Burnley and their goal difference is also only two goals better than the Clarets. Roberto Martinez’s men were the first visiting side to win at Turf Moor this season and their recent record suggests they will do the double over Burnley. In 19 previous meetings, Burnley have won just twice and they were both at home, but Brian Laws knows they must start picking up points away from home and this would be an ideal place to start.
Burnley then have a local derby with fierce rivals Blackburn Rovers to contend with and the three points really are a must. Blackburn grabbed the bragging rights earlier this season at Ewood Park but Sam’s men have managed just one win away all season and a memorable victory is to be had here.
The millionaires of Manchester City are next in town and they will be keen to exact revenge following the sensational 3-3 draw at Eastlands, which remains Burnley’s only point on the road this season. City will have their eye on finishing in the top four but Turf Moor is a tricky place to visit and bar the Chelsea result their away form is nothing to write home about.
Burnley then face a difficult away double-header against Hull City and Sunderland, both of whom are right in the mire. A brace from Graham Alexander gave Burnley the points against Hull in October but they haven’t won at Hull for 16 years. But again it’s a game where the players must stand up and give 100 per cent for the full 90 minutes if they are to have any chance of staying up. Steve Bruce’s men also fell victim to Burnley’s home form and the Black Cats just can’t buy a win right now. However, they have only lost at home twice so it will be tough.
As the curtain comes down on the season Burnley then host Liverpool, who have only won away from Anfield four times this season, before travelling to Birmingham and then entertaining Spurs on the final day of the season. Liverpool have pulled themselves back into the hunt for fourth place but they haven’t won in the league at Turf Moor for 40 years. Birmingham are defensively sound but Burnley are unbeaten in their past three visits and everyone knows what happens to Spurs when it matters most on the final day of the season– they get food poisoning!
A range of 34 to 38 points has been enough to guarantee survival over the past five years so Burnley need somewhere in the region of 11 to 15 points to retain their Premier League status and I think the minimum amount they can expect to take from their remaining fixtures is 11. Anything more than that will be brilliant.
With the attacking threat of Fletcher, Paterson, Blake, Eagles and Elliot, Burnley always have a chance going forward. The one thing that may count against them though is their terrible goal difference. If Laws can work on the defence and cut out all the stupid mistakes Burnley will have a fighting chance of staying up and extending their Premier League adventure.
