Stats Point To Spurs And Liverpool Making Progress In Europe

It was a nasty shock for Tottenham to leave Switzerland with a deficit against a Young Boys team generally thought to be the weakest of the teams they could have drawn but the odds still favour qualification for the group stages of the Champions League for the North Londoners.

Teams facing a 3-2 deficit in European two-leg contests tend to go through in 57% of ties. So Spurs have the edge but that late goal from Roman Pavlyuchenko was vital- a 3-1 deficit would have only given Spurs a 30% chance of making progress.

Of course these statistics take no account of the relative standing of the sides or variables like pitch conditions (in this case, plastic). Generally speaking, Spurs would surely beat Young Boys on most occasions on their own park.

On the history of European ties, Liverpool have the tougher problem, though only slightly. 1-0 victors in home legs progress 55% of the time. Joe Cole's penalty miss made a massive difference to their Europa League encounter with Trabzonspor, because a two goal cushion would have put the Reds firmly in the driving seat; a 2-0 win means success 75% of the time.

Aston Villa fans probably need a tonic after their team's 6-0 drubbing at Newcastle. Their 1-1 result at Rapid Vienna means Villa have an 80% chance of gaining revenge for last year's elimination at the hands of the same side.

Manchester City should coast home against Timisoara after their single goal victory in Rumania and Celtic take the two goal lead to Utrecht which eluded Liverpool. The Hoops are big  favourites to go forward and Motherwell have a strong chance of making it two Scottish qualifiers for the Europa League group stages.

The Well came away with a 2-1 deficit from OB Odense, tipping the tie in their favour- 57% of sides in their position come out winners across the two legs.

It would take something miraculous for Dundee United to join them. The Tangerines conceded a single goal defeat at home to AEK Athens. A mere 6% of teams overturn that sort of deficit.

In theory,The New Saints are better placed to quailfy thanks their 3-0 loss in Bulgaria. 9% of teams have performed this type of comeback but surely CSKA Sofia will have a reasonably comfortable night in Wales.